LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private Updated Wed, Oct 7 · 10:34 AM PT
Week 5 · Locks Saturday, Oct 10

Week 5: 2 of 5 entries still standing.

One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.

2 / 5
Our entries alive
5,972
of 24,999 field entries still alive
$25.0M
Prize pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming

This week

Week 5 — picks shown before Saturday's lock. Spectators only, play nice.

A crowded favorite, a split field

About 29% of the field is projected on the Cowboys at home against the Buccaneers, 78% favorites. A real consensus, but not an overwhelming one.

Our two entries split across two doors: Broncos, Texans. Broncos is the leverage play — only 1% of the field is there, so a win buys real separation from the crowd.

Pre-registered prediction №5: 29.3% of the field picks the Cowboys this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 5 pick report.

Where the field is going

Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 5
Our picks
Rest of the field
DAL
29.3%
HOU
OURS
26.7%
CIN
18.2%
JAX
4.8%
WAS
4.7%
DET
4.3%
ATL
3.8%
DEN
OURS
1.2%

Our entries

Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat — same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: DET, TB
DOC BROWN 2
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, BAL
DOC BROWN 3
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, TB
DOC BROWN 4
LIVE
Week pick
DEN · 63% to win
Teams burned: PHI, KC, SF, BAL
MCMAHON & RODGERS
LIVEGROUP-DECIDED
Week pick
HOU · vote closes Sat
Model suggests HOU — the group has the wheel

Season outlook

What the simulator sees from here — thousands of full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~13 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 25,004 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.

Danger weeks, called in advance

Where the model says the field gets hurt — judge us on these in December
WEEK 5
The Cowboys trap. The model projects 29% of the surviving field onto one team — with a 21% chance that team loses. That's how thousands of entries die in one afternoon.
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 26% of the field massing on the Rams. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 43% of the field funnels onto the Eagles, and the model gives that favorite a 40% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.

The machine's record

The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets, pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
1.23%
Target: ≤ 2.65% · 4 weeks graded. On the three most-picked teams: 8.4 pts avg. miss (model's norm ~11)
Our survival vs the field
+12.0 pp
Ours 79%, field 67% over 4 weeks — target: beat the field
Danger weeks called
3 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live