LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private Updated Wed, Oct 14 · 10:34 AM PT
Week 6 · Locks Saturday, Oct 17

Week 6: 1 of 5 entries still standing.

One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A 25,017-entry, $25,017,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.

1 / 5
Our entries alive
2,910
of 24,999 field entries still alive
$25.0M
Prize pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming

This week

Week 6 — picks shown before Saturday's lock. Spectators only, play nice.

The field walks into a crowded trade

About 42% of the field is projected on the Rams at home against the Cardinals, 87% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.

Our 1 entries split across 1 doors: Rams.

Pre-registered prediction №6: 42.0% of the field picks the Rams this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 6 pick report.

Where the field is going

Model-projected share of all 25,017 entries, week 6
Our picks
Rest of the field
LA
OURS
42.0%
IND
26.5%
NE
18.3%
KC
4.2%
BAL
3.3%
SF
2.0%
BUF
1.3%

Our entries

Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat — same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: DET, TB
DOC BROWN 2
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, BAL
DOC BROWN 3
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: JAX, TB
DOC BROWN 4
OUT
Week pick
—
Teams burned: PHI, KC, SF, BAL, DAL
MCMAHON & RODGERS
LIVEGROUP-DECIDED
Week pick
LA · vote closes Sat
Model suggests LA — the group has the wheel

Season outlook

What the simulator sees from here — thousands of full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~8 entries
out of 25,017 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 25,009 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.

Danger weeks, called in advance

Where the model says the field gets hurt — judge us on these in December
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 27% of the field massing on the Lions. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 46% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 44% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.

The machine's record

The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets, pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
1.58%
Target: ≤ 2.65% · 5 weeks graded. On the three most-picked teams: 11.6 pts avg. miss (model's norm ~11)
Our survival vs the field
+10.1 pp
Ours 75%, field 65% over 5 weeks — target: beat the field
Danger weeks called
2 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live