LONGSHOT LEDGER
Circa Survivor · 2026 · Private
Updated Wed, Sep 2 · 10:36 AM PT
Week 1 · Locks Saturday, Sep 12
Five entries. Twenty weeks. Every prediction graded in public.
One team to win outright each week, each team usable once, ties lose. A ~20,000-entry, $20,000,000 winner-take-most pool — and a model that published its season targets before kickoff. This page is the running scoreboard of how those predictions hold up.
5 / 5
Our entries alive
~20,000
Entries expected in the field
$20M
Guaranteed pool
0%
Chance of a quiet season — massacre weeks are coming
This week
Week 1 — picks shown before Saturday's
lock. Spectators only, play nice.
The field walks into a crowded trade
About 45% of the field is projected on the Chargers at home against the Cardinals, 82% favorites. That's a strong pick with a very crowded exit.
Our five entries split across three doors: Chargers ×3, Bengals, Jaguars. Bengals is the leverage play — only 4% of the field is there, so a win buys real separation from the crowd.
Pre-registered prediction №1: 45.1% of the field picks the Chargers this week. Graded the moment Circa publishes the official Week 1 pick report.
Where the field is going
Model-projected share of all 20,000 entries, week 1
Our picks
Rest
of the field
LACOURS ×3
45.1%
JAXOURS
30.0%
DET6.7%
CINOURS
3.6%
PHI3.4%
LV2.1%
BAL1.9%
Our entries
Four run by the model. One decided by the group chat —
same scoreboard, no mercy.
DOC BROWN 1
Week pickLAC · 82% to win
LAC · 82% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 2
Week pickLAC · 82% to win
LAC · 82% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 3
Week pickCIN · 64% to win
CIN · 64% to winTeams burned: none yet
DOC BROWN 4
Week pickJAX · 78% to win
JAX · 78% to winTeams burned: none yet
MCMAHON & RODGERS
Week pickLAC · vote closes Sat
LAC · vote closes SatModel suggests LAC — the group has the wheel
Season outlook
What the simulator sees from here — thousands of
full-season runs, refreshed three times a week.
How this likely ends
~5 entries
out of 20,000 are expected to split the pot when the music stops. That's the game: outlast 19,995 strangers.
Model average across simulated seasons; the swing is enormous by design.
Danger weeks, called in advance
Where the model says the field gets hurt —
judge us on these in December
WEEK 5
The Patriots trap. The model projects 48% of the surviving field onto one team — with a 22% chance that team loses. That's how thousands of entries die in one afternoon.
THANKSGIVING
Short menu, forced hands. A restricted holiday slate with everyone's best teams already spent; the model has 20% of the field massing on the Lions. First of two holiday choke points.
CHRISTMAS
The season's biggest crash risk. By Christmas the menus are thin — 36% of the field funnels onto the Bears, and the model gives that favorite a 47% chance of losing. A coin flip carrying a huge slice of the pool.
The machine's record
The scorecard we asked to be judged on — four targets,
pre-registered before leg 1, graded all season even after our entries die.
Crowd prediction error
Awaiting wk 1
Target: ≤ 2.65% avg. miss on where the field's picks land
Our survival vs the field
Awaiting wk 1
Target: beat the field's average survival rate, cumulatively
Danger weeks called
3 flagged
Week 5, Thanksgiving & Christmas — called before kickoff
Operations
100%
Every snapshot on time, zero missed locks since go-live